5 Housing Trends to Watch for 2018

5 Housing Trends to Watch for 2018
realtor.com   article by Daily Real Estate News | November 29, 2017

Home shoppers may have it easier in 2018. Inventory constraints of for-sale homes and rising home prices may finally start to ease next year, according to realtor.com®’s 2018 National Housing Forecast.

“Next year will set the stage for a significant inflection point in the housing shortage,” says Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com®. “Inventory increases will be felt in higher priced segments after spring home buying season, which we expect to take hold and begin to provide relief for buyers and drive sales growth in 2019 and beyond.”

But the big wild card for 2018 will be any impact from the proposed tax reform legislation, which is currently being debated by Congress, realtor.com® adds.

realtor 2018forecast

Here’s a closer look at realtor.com®’s five housing prediction trends for 2018:

  1. Inventory to start increasing: Realtor.com® projects positive year-over-year inventory growth by the fall of 2018—which will be the first time since 2015. “Inventory declines are expected to decelerate slowly throughout the year, reaching a 4 percent year-over-year decline in March before increasing in early fall, after the peak home-buying months,” realtor.com® notes in its report. The cities expected to see inventory levels recover first are Boston; Detroit; Kansas City, Mo.; Nashville; and Philadelphia. The majority of this growth will be in the mid- to upper-tier price points (which includes homes priced above $350,000). On the other hand, recovery in the starter home market likely will linger since levels are “significantly depleted by first time buyers,” realtor.com® notes.
  2. Price appreciation to slow: Home buyers likely will see home prices moderate in the new year. Realtor.com® forecasts home prices to slow to a 3.2 percent growth year over year nationwide. For comparison, home prices in 2017 posted a 5.5 percent increase. The majority of the slowing price appreciation will be centered in the higher-priced ranges as more inventory becomes available. Entry-level homes, on the other hand, likely will continue to see price gains due to a larger potential buyer pool as well as a more limited number of homes available for sale in this price range.
  3. Millennials to gain market share: Finally, the long-held predictions may hold true. Millennials may reach 43 percent of home buyers taking out a mortgage by the end of 2018, up from an estimated 40 percent in 2017, realtor.com® projects. The largest cohort of millennials are expected to turn 30 in 2020. “Millennials are a driving force in today’s housing market,” Vivas says. “They already dominate lower price home mortgage and are getting close to overtaking older generations for mid- and upper-tier mortgages. While financially secure in general, their debt to income ratios have started to increase as they compete for higher priced homes.”
  4. The South to lead in sales growth: Realtor.com® forecasts that Southern cities will top national averages in home sales growth in 2018. Markets like Tulsa, Okla.; Little Rock, Ark.; Dallas; and Charlotte, N.C., are expected to be the highest performers. Sales in these markets are predicted to increase by 6 percent or more. Nationally, sales growths are predicted to grow by 2.5 percent. “The majority of this growth can be attributed to healthy building levels combating the housing shortage,” realtor.com® notes in its report. “With inventory growth just around the corner, these areas are primed for sales gains in years to come.”
  5. Tax reform wild card: Tax reform could dampen 2018 sales and price forecasts, realtor.com® reports. The U.S. House has passed a tax bill, and the Senate likely will vote on one soon. “While the ultimate impact of tax reform will depend on the details of the plan that is finally adopted, both versions include provisions that are likely to decrease incentives for mobility and reduce ownership tax benefits,” realtor.com® reports. “On the flip side, some taxpayers, including renters, are likely to see tax cuts. While more disposable income for buyers is positive for housing, the loss of tax benefits for owners could lead to fewer sales and impact prices negatively over time with the largest impact on markets with higher prices and incomes.” Read more: Tax Reform Proposals Threaten Homeowners and REALTORS® Square Up After House Passes Tax Bill

Source: realtor.com®; REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 112917


Kenneth Bargers, REALTOR® License 318311 ♦ Pilkerton Realtors License 257352
(615) 512-9836 cellular ♦ (615) 371-2474 office
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Rent No More! 10 U.S. Cities With Huge Increases in Homeownership

Rent No More! 10 U.S. Cities With Huge Increases in Homeownership
Article by Clare Trapasso; realtor.com | November 27, 2017

House 1026It’s time to tune out the chatter, the doom, and certainly the gloom: The American Dream of homeownership is alive and well. Really.

But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to buy a home these days. So what are the stumbling blocks? Stroke-inducing student loan debt. Soaring home and rent prices, and a lack of properties in many markets. And let’s not forget the Great Recession, which set so many would-be buyers back on their heels.

All this has dragged down homeownership rates, which hit 63.9% nationally in the third quarter of the year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s down about five percentage points from their pre-crash high in 2004.

But wait: There are bright beacons of hope across the nation, places where homeownership is actually on the rise.

The data team at realtor.com® set out to find those metros where homeownership rates are growing the fastest. In the process, we discovered a few trends. Ownership is shooting up the most in Rust Belt cities undergoing a resurgence; in smaller cities close to much bigger and pricier metros, where commuters can snag a home for less; and in fast-growing Southern hubs that are continuing to experience booming job markets.

Bonus: More than half of the metros on our list boast median prices well under the national median of $274,492.

“Affordability is a strong draw to these areas,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com®. A lot of these cities are on the outskirts of big cities where folks can snag an abode for less and then commute downtown for work, she adds.

However, interested buyers had better move fast—all this demand is steadily pushing home prices skyward.

To come up with our findings, the data team analyzed Census data comparing the homeownership rates in the first three-quarters of 2014 to the first three-quarters of 2017. The Census data only included 75 of the largest metros (with some cities moving on or off the list over the years, due to population shifts). Home list price data, from realtor.com, dates from Oct. 1.

So where are the most buyers settling into homes of their very own? Get ready for a few surprises…

1. Milwaukee, WI
Median home price: $224,950
Current homeownership rate: 68.7%
Three-year homeownership change: +11%

2. Charlotte, NC
Median home price: $327,050
Current homeownership rate: 62.8%
Three-year homeownership change: +10.5%

3. Memphis, TN
Median home price: $195,050
Current homeownership rate: 61%
Three-year homeownership change: +9.3%

4. Baltimore, MD
Median home price: $300,040
Current homeownership rate: 68.4%
Three-year homeownership change: +7.3%

5. Allentown, PA
Median home price: $225,050
Current homeownership rate: 74.8%
Three-year homeownership change: +7.3%

6. Pittsburgh
Median home price: $174,950
Current homeownership rate: 74%
Three-year homeownership change: +7.2%

7. Albuquerque, NM
Median home price: $239,950
Current homeownership rate: 66%
Three-year homeownership change: +5.7%

8. Nashville, TN
Median home price: $359,050
Current homeownership rate: 68.8%
Three-year homeownership change: +4.9%

9. Dallas, TX
Median home price: $339,950
Current homeownership rate: 60.7%
Three-year homeownership change: +4.8%

10. Syracuse, NY
Median home price: $149,950
Current homeownership rate: 66.5%
Three-year homeownership change: +4.6%

Read the complete article at realtor.com
Clare Trapasso is the senior news editor of realtor.com and an adjunct journalism professor. She previously wrote for a Financial Times publication and the New York Daily News. Contact her at clare.trapasso@move.com. Follow @claretrap


Kenneth Bargers, REALTOR® License 318311 ♦ Pilkerton Realtors License 257352
(615) 512-9836 cellular ♦ (615) 371-2474 office
kb@bargers-solutions.com emailkb@kennethbargers.realtor email
www.bargers-solutions..com webkennethbargers.com blog
2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood, Tennessee 37027 address

Realtor.com®: Housing Boom Is Officially Back

Realtor.com®: Housing Boom Is Officially Back
article by Daily Real Estate News | November 13, 2017

Housing prices have returned to the “boom levels” of a decade ago, but this time around, the fast appreciation is being fueled by strong supply-and-demand dynamics rather than predatory lending practices, investor speculation, and too much construction, according to new realtor.com® data released Monday.

appreciationchart“As we compare today’s market dynamics to those of a decade ago, it’s important to remember rising prices didn’t cause the housing crash,” says realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “It was rising prices stoked by subprime and low-documentation mortgages, as well as people looking for short-term gains—versus today’s truer market vitality—that created the environment for the crash.”

The national median price for a home in 2016 was $236,000—2 percent higher than in pre-recession 2006—according to realtor.com®. Out of the country’s 50 largest housing markets, 31 have returned to their levels during the last housing bubble. Realtor.com® researchers finger Austin, Texas, as the city that has posted the largest increases in home prices—63 percent—over the past 10 years. Denver and Dallas have also seen some of the biggest gains, at 54 percent and 52 percent, respectively. On the other hand, three markets remained more than 20 percent below their 2006 highs: Las Vegas (25 percent below); Tucson, Ariz. (22 percent); and Riverside, Calif. (22 percent).

cityappreciation

Source: realtor.com®; REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 111317


Kenneth Bargers, REALTOR® License 318311 ♦ Pilkerton Realtors License 257352
(615) 512-9836 cellular ♦ (615) 371-2474 office
kb@bargers-solutions.com emailkb@kennethbargers.realtor email
www.bargers-solutions..com webkennethbargers.com blog
2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood, Tennessee 37027 address

The Housing Hot List for October

The Housing Hot List for October
realtor.com    article by Daily Real Estate News | October 30, 2017

Nashville Union Station HotelListing prices for residential homes remained near record highs in October, according to a preliminary analysis by realtor.com®. The median list price nationwide was $274,000, near the $275,000 record set in June.

One point of relief for “market-fatigued buyers” who’ve faced low inventories for the past few years is that supplies of new listings are up slightly from a year ago, says Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist. By the end of October, about 420,000 new listings will have hit the market over the entire month, realtor.com® predicts.

Some housing markets are more lively than others, with California continuing to see some of the most activity. Realtor.com® released its “hottest market” list for October, which is based on how quickly homes are selling and the amount of clicks cities receive on listings at realtor.com®.

The top 20 performing markets in October are:

  1. San Jose, California
  2. Vallejo, California
  3. San Francisco, California
  4. San Diego, California
  5. Boston, Massachusetts
  6. Stockton, California
  7. Sacramento, California
  8. Detroit, Michigan
  9. Denver, Colorado
  10. Modesto, California
  11. Columbus, Ohio
  12. Fresno, California
  13. Dallas, Texas
  14. Nashville, Tennessee
  15. Colorado Springs, Colorado
  16. Midland, Texas
  17. Rochester, New York
  18. Oxnard, California
  19. Santa Cruz, California
  20. Janesville, Wisconsin

Source: “Tight Inventory Drives High Prices, Quick Sales in the Nation’s Hottest Markets,” realtor.com® (Oct. 27, 2017); REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 103017


Kenneth Bargers, REALTOR® License 318311 ♦ Pilkerton Realtors License 257352
(615) 512-9836 cellular ♦ (615) 371-2474 office
kb@bargers-solutions.com emailkb@kennethbargers.realtor email
www.bargers-solutions..com webkennethbargers.com blog
2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood, Tennessee 37027 address

National Overview: 2 Major Reasons Why Inventory Is So Low

2 Major Reasons Why Inventory Is So Low
realtor.com    article by Daily Real Estate News | August 11, 2017

House 1014Inventory of available homes on the market is the lowest it’s been in two decades, but the reasons may surprise you. Two of the likely culprits are baby boomers and homeowners who are simply satisfied with their home, according to realtor.com®’s Housing Shortage Study.

Baby boomers are showing a desire to age in place in their current homes, and their refusal to sell is creating a clog in the market, according to the study. Eighty-five percent of baby boomers surveyed say they are not planning to sell their home in the next year. That means 33 million properties—many of which are urban condos or suburban single-family homes—will stay off the market. Many of those properties would be popular choices for millennials, a generation still largely waiting in the wings to break into homeownership.

“Boomers, indeed, hold the key to those homes the market desperately needs, both in the urban condo and the detached suburban home segment,” says realtor.com® chief economist Danielle Hale. “But with a strong economy and rising home prices, there’s really no reason for established homeowners to sell in the short term. Although downsizing might be on the minds of boomers, they face the same inventory shortages and price increases plaguing millennials.”

Furthermore, 63 percent of respondents to the survey indicate that their current home meets the needs of their family. They cite low interest rates (16 percent), recently purchasing their home (15 percent), and needing to make home improvements and low property taxes (each at 13 percent) as reasons not to sell. “Life events drive real estate transactions,” Hale says. “When the majority of homeowners feel their family’s needs are being met by their current home, there is nothing compelling to them to put their home on the market.”

There may be hope that more starter homes will hit the market soon. Possibly offsetting the low supply of starter homes, which is down 17 percent year over year, 60 percent of respondents to realtor.com®’s survey who did say they plan to sell in the next year are millennials who want to move to a larger home or one with nicer features.

“The housing shortage forced many first-time home buyers to consider smaller homes and condos as a way to literally get their foot in the door,” says Hale. “Our survey data reveals that we may see more of these homes hitting the market in the next year, but whether these owners actually list will depend on whether they can find another home.”

Source: realtor.com®; REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 081117

Kenneth Bargers REALTOR® License 318311  |  Pilkerton Realtors License 257352
(615) 512-9836 cellular  •  (615) 915-5901 facsimile  •  kb@bargers-solutions.com email
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Murfreesboro among Best Markets for First-Time Buyers 2017

Murfreesboro among Best Markets for First-Time Buyers 2017
WalletHub.com article by Daily Real Estate News | July 18, 2017

Murfreesboro 1001Texas is good for first-time home buyers, according to a new study by WalletHub, a personal finance resource. The Lone Star State boasts four of the top 10 locations for first-time home buyers in 2017; McKinney, Texas, ranked first on WalletHub’s list.

“Cities in north Texas have very healthy housing markets and a high percentage of homes sold in the past year,” WalletHub analyst Jill Gonzalez told realtor.com®. “Construction is flourishing in general, with high percentages of housing units built within the last five years.”

WalletHub researchers analyzed 300 cities using 23 different indicators, including affordability, quality of life, cost of living, real estate taxes, crime rates, and more. The top 10 best places for first-time home buyers that topped its list for 2017 are:

  1. McKinney, Texas
  2. Frisco, Texas
  3. Allen, Texas
  4. Cary, North Carolina
  5. Norman, Oklahoma
  6. Lincoln, Nebraska
  7. Richardson, Texas
  8. Boise, Idaho
  9. Thornton, Colorado
  10. Murfreesboro, Tennessee

Source: “2017’s Best & Worst Places for First-Time Home Buyers,” WalletHub.com (July 17, 2017) and “The 10 Best and Worst Cities for First-Time Home Buyers in 2017,” realtor.com® (July 17, 2017); REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 071817

Kenneth Bargers REALTOR® License 318311  |  Pilkerton Realtors License 257352
(615) 512-9836 cellular  •  (615) 915-5901 facsimile  •  kb@bargers-solutions.com email
bargers-solutions.com web  •  kennethbargers.com blog  •  Search Properties
(615) 371-2474 office  •  (615) 371-2475 facsimile  •  2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood TN 37027 address
The greatest compliment you can give is a referral!

Nationally: New-Home Prices Hit Record High

Nationally: New-Home Prices Hit Record High
NAHB    article by Daily Real Estate News | June 26, 2017

regional_nhs_may17

The median price for a new single-family home reached a record high in May of $345,800, the Commerce Department reports. Buyers will be paying a huge premium for new construction, as new-home prices are now 16.8 percent higher than they were a year ago.

So far, however, the higher price tags don’t seem to be spooking home shoppers. In May, 61,000 new homes were purchased—a 2.9 percent increase from April and an 8.9 percent increase from a year ago, the Commerce Department reports. “Builders are focused on the mid to upper end of the housing market,” says Joseph Kirchner, realtor.com®’s senior economist. “It means that it will be more difficult to find more affordable homes for first-time buyers, millennials, and low-income people.”

Only 6,000 newly constructed homes sold in May were priced between $150,000 and $199,999. Further, there were about 14,000 sales in the $200,000 to $299,999 range. New homes now cost about 36.8 percent more than previously existing homes, which also reached record-high prices in May.

Regionally, new-home sales increased the most in the West last month, posting a 13.3 percent month-over-month jump, followed by a 6.2 percent increase in the South. New-home sales, meanwhile, fell 10.8 percent in the Northeast and plunged 25.7 percent month-over-month in the Midwest.

Source: National Association of Home Builders and “New Homes Just Keep Getting Pricier, But Buyers Keep Coming,” realtor.com® (June 23, 2017); REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 062617

Kenneth Bargers REALTOR® License 318311  |  Pilkerton Realtors License 257352
(615) 512-9836 cellular  •  (615) 915-5901 facsimile  •  kb@bargers-solutions.com email
bargers-solutions.com web  •  kennethbargers.com blog  •  Search Properties
(615) 371-2474 office  •  (615) 371-2475 facsimile  •  2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood TN 37027 address