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Housing Starts Cool Off in January

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Housing Starts Cool Off in January
Article by Daily Real Estate News | February 17, 2017

Construction of New Home

Overall housing production declined in January after an unusually robust reading in the multifamily sector in December, but economists were unfazed. “As we move forward in 2017, we can expect the multifamily sector to continue to stabilize and single-family production to move forward at a gradual but consistent pace,” says Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Housing starts dropped 2.6 percent on a month-over-month basis in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.246 million units, primarily due to a 10.2 percent plunge in the multifamily sector, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Single-family starts, on the other hand, rose 1.9 percent month-over-month to 823,000 units.

“A settling of housing production is in line with what we are hearing from builders — that they are largely optimistic about current market conditions but still face supply-side headwinds and regulatory hurdles,” says Granger MacDonald, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.

Combined single- and multifamily housing production was on the rise in the Northeast and South in January. In the Northeast, housing production surged 55.4 percent last month and by 20 percent in the South. On the other hand, starts dropped by 41.3 percent in the West and by 17.9 percent in the Midwest, the Commerce Department reported.

Housing production is likely to pick up in the coming months. Issuance of construction permits — a gauge of future construction activity — increased 4.6 percent in January to 1.285 million units. But the bulk of that increase was due to a nearly 20 percent increase in multifamily permits to 477,000 units, the Commerce Department reported. Single-family permits, meanwhile, dropped 2.7 percent in January to 808,000 units.

The Northeast likely will continue to see some of the biggest increases in housing production. Regionally, housing permits increased by the highest amount in the Northeast, rising 29.6 percent in January, followed by a 9.9 percent gain in the South, and a 5.3 percent increase in the Midwest. The West was the only major region to see a decline, dropping 13.2 percent in January.

Source: National Association of Home Builders; REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 021717

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Housing Starts Fall 3.8 Percent in January

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Housing Starts Fall 3.8 Percent in January
Article by National Association of Home Builders | February 17, 2016

NAHB-LogoNationwide housing starts dropped 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.099 million units in January, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department. Overall permit issuance edged down 0.2 percent.

“January’s production numbers are in line with our recent HMI reading and show that builders are being cautious as they face some market uncertainties and supply side constraints,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill.

“Despite the modest dip in starts this month, we expect to see ongoing, gradual growth in housing production in 2016,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “An improving economy, solid job creation and pent-up demand for housing should keep the market moving forward.”

Both single- and multifamily production dropped in January. Single-family housing starts fell 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 731,000 units while multifamily starts declined 3.7 percent to 368,000 units.

Combined single- and multifamily starts fell in all four regions in January, with the West, South, Northeast and Midwest posting respective losses of 0.4 percent, 2.9 percent, 3.7 percent and 12.8 percent.

Multifamily permits rose 2.1 percent to a rate of 482,000 while single-family permits fell 1.6 percent to 720,000.

Regionally, the Midwest, West and South registered respective permit gains of 26.5 percent, 24.5 percent and 0.3 percent. Permits fell in the Northeast by 55.4 percent.

Source: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 021716

Kenneth Bargers, REALTOR® | Pilkerton Realtors
(615) 512-9836 cellular (615) 371-2474 office kb@bargers-solutions.com email
www.bargers-solutions.com web kennethbargers.com blog
2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood Tennessee address

Need a home? visit Search for Properties
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Housing Outlook for 2016: Expect Change

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Housing Outlook for 2016: Expect Change
Article by Daily Real Estate News | December 28, 2015

Treed-Home-LotWhile change is coming to the mortgage market, Freddie Mac says in its 2016 housing forecast that it’s too soon to tell whether marketplace lending is the next Uber or just another flash in the pan.

“The current generation of marketplace lenders all may fail in the next economic downturn,” says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Regulators may impose higher standards on marketplace lenders. The cost advantages of marketplace lending may not extend to mortgage lending.”

But Becketti says the new year will undoubtedly bring changes: “Innovation is difficult to stop. New startups will look for ways to improve upon current marketplace lending business models. Large bank lenders may incorporate the most successful of the marketplace lending innovations. It’s difficult to say where all this will lead, but one prediction is indisputable. Expect change.”

Here are five more predictions for 2016 from the mortgage giant:

  1. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will likely average below 4.5 percent for 2016 on an annualized basis.
  2. Mortgage rates will gradually move higher posing an affordability challenge. But expect a strengthening labor market and pent-up demand to carry momentum into 2016.
  3. Home prices will likely moderate slightly to 4.4 percent in 2016, driven in part by the reduction in home buyer affordability and reduced demand as a result of Fed tightening.
  4. But industry activity will grow in 2016 despite monetary tightening. Expect total housing starts to increase 16 percent year-over-year and total home sales to increase 3 percent.
  5. While home purchases will increase next year, higher interest rates will reduce the refinance volume pushing overall mortgage originations lower in 2016 than in 2015.

Source: Freddie Mac; REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 122815

Kenneth Bargers, REALTOR® | Pilkerton Realtors
(615) 512-9836 cellular (615) 371-2474 office kb@bargers-solutions.com email
www.bargers-solutions.com web kennethbargers.com blog
2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood Tennessee address

Need a home? visit Search for Properties
Do you need marketing assistance for special projects or contract assignments? visit the Marketing page of Bargers Solutions

Builder Confidence Continues to Rise

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Builder Confidence Continues to Rise
Article by National Association of Home Builders | September 16, 2015

NAHB-LogoBuilder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes continued its steady rise in September with a one point increase to a level of 62 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). It is the highest reading since October 2005.

“The HMI shows that single-family housing is making solid progress, said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo. “However, our members continue to tell us that they are concerned about the availability of lots and labor.”

“NAHB is projecting about 1.1 million total housing starts this year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Today’s report is consistent with our forecast, and barring any unexpected jolts, we expect housing to keep moving forward at a steady, modest rate through the end of the year.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two of the three HMI components posted gains in September. The index measuring buyer traffic increased two points to 47, and the component gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 67. Meanwhile, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped from 70 to 68.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West and Midwest each rose one point to 64 and 59, respectively. The South posted a one-point gain to 64 and the Northeast dropped one point to 46.

### Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. ###

Source: National Association of Home Builders, NAHB Article 091615
Kenneth Bargers, REALTOR® | Pilkerton Realtors
(615) 512-9836 cellular (615) 371-2474 office kb@bargers-solutions.com email
www.bargers-solutions.com web kennethbargers.com blog
2 Cadillac Drive, Brentwood Tennessee address

Need a home? visit Search for Properties
Do you need marketing assistance for special projects or contract assignments? visit the Marketing page of Bargers Solutions

New-Home Construction Is Trailing Job Growth

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New-Home Construction Is Trailing Job Growth
Article by Daily Real Estate News | September 10, 2015

HouseConstructionNew-home construction is insufficient in the majority of metro areas and is likely to lead to housing shortages and unhealthy price growth, according to new research by the National Association of REALTORS®.

In its analysis, NAR measured the volume of new-home construction to the number of newly employed workers in 146 metro areas over the past three years from 2012 to 2014. Researchers found that homebuilding activity for all housing types was underperforming in about two-thirds of the metro areas tracked.

“In addition to slow housing turnover and the diminishing supply of distressed properties, lagging new home construction – especially single-family – has kept available inventory far below balanced levels,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Our research shows that even as the labor market began to strengthen, homebuilding failed to keep up and is now contributing to the stronger price appreciation and eroding affordability currently seen throughout the U.S.”

The study found that the historical average ratio for the annual change in total workers to total permits is 1.2 for all housing types and 1.6 for single-family homes. However through 2014, 63 percent of markets tracked had a ratio above 1.2, and 72 percent had a ratio above 1.6 — which indicates inadequate new construction.

With jobs being added at an increasing pace in many markets, the widening gap between housing starts to employment is alarming, Yun says.

In 2014, the average ratio of single-family permits to employment jumped to 3.7, while the ratio for total permits rose 50 percent to 2.4.

“Affordability issues for buying and renting because of low supply are already well-known in many of the country’s largest metro areas, including San Francisco, San Diego and New York,” says Yun. “Additionally, our study found that limited construction is a widespread issue in metro areas of all sizes.”

The study found that the markets with the largest disparity of jobs versus single-family home construction were in San Jose, Calif. (at 22.6); San Francisco (22.4); San Diego and New York (at 13.9); and Miami (11.1).

“While construction is limited in some markets – such as Trenton-Ewing, N.J., and Rockford, Ill. – they aren’t facing inventory shortages despite having high ratios because their job gains are more moderate,” Yun says.

Single-family housing starts also were found to be as nearly adequate to local job growth (a ratio of 1.6) in Jackson, Miss.; Colorado Springs, Colo.; Chattanooga, Tenn.; Amarillo, Tex.; and St. Louis.

“As local job markets continue to expand, the pool of home buyers will only increase,” Yun says. “That’s why it’s crucial for builders to begin shifting their focus from apartments to the purchase market and make up for lost time. If not, severe housing shortages and faster price appreciation will erode affordability and remain a burden for buyers trying to reach the market.”

Source: National Association of REALTORS®; REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 091015
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Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June

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Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June
Press Release by National Association of Home Builders | June 15, 2015

NAHB-Logo(June 15, 2015) Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in June rose five points to a level of 59 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest reading since September 2014.

“Builders are reporting more serious and committed buyers at their job sites and this is reflected in recent government data showing that new-home sales and single-family construction are gaining momentum,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo.

“The HMI indices measuring current and future sales expectations are at their highest levels since the last quarter of 2005, indicating a growing optimism among builders that housing will continue to strengthen in the months ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “At the same time, builders remain sensitive to consumers’ ability to buy a new home.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components posted healthy gains in June. The component gauging current sales conditions jumped seven points to 65, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased six points to 69, and the component measuring buyer traffic rose five points to 44.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South and Northeast each rose three points to 60 and 44, respectively. The West posted a two-point gain to 57 while the Midwest dropped by one point to 54.

Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com.

Source: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB); Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June, Press Release 061515

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Housing Production Edges Up 2 Percent in March

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Housing Production Edges Up 2 Percent in March
Press Release by the National Association of Home Builders | April 16, 2015

NAHB-LogoApril 16, 2015 – Nationwide housing starts rose 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 926,000 units in March from an upwardly revised February reading, according to newly released data from the U.S. Commerce Department.

Single-family housing production rose 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 618,000 in March while multifamily starts dropped 2.5 percent to 308,000 units.

“Today’s reading demonstrates that the housing industry continues to make gains at a gradual pace,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo. “There are still some price sensitive buyers who remain on the fence.”

“Builders are being careful not to add inventory beyond expected demand, especially as they struggle with increasing costs for lots, labor and materials,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, pent-up demand, low mortgage interest rates and a growing economy should keep the housing industry moving forward throughout the rest of the year.”

Regionally, combined single- and multifamily starts increased the Northeast and Midwest, with respective gains of 114.9 percent and 31.3 percent. Housing production dropped 3.5 percent in the South and 19.3 percent in the West.

Led by a drop in the volatile multifamily sector, overall permit issuance declined 5.7 percent in March to a rate of 1.039 million. Multifamily permits fell 15.9 percent to a rate of 403,000 while single-family permits rose 2.1 percent to 636,000.

Regionally, the Northeast registered a permit gain of 39.8 percent, while the Midwest, South and West posted respective losses of 4.4 percent, 14.2 percent and 4.3 percent.

Source: NAHB, Press Release April 16, 2015

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