Bump in Contract Signings Points to Future Housing Gains

Bump in Contract Signings Points to Future Housing Gains
National Association of REALTORS® | October 25, 2018

Pending home sales increased slightly in September, with significant gains in the West and Midwest offsetting more modest growth in other regions, the National Association of REALTORS® reports. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure based on contract signings, shows signings inched up 0.5 percent nationwide to a reading of 104.6 in September. But on a year-over-year basis, contract signings have dropped 1 percent—marking the ninth consecutive month of annual decreases.

1810_Septermber-PHSNAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says the housing market is stabilizing. “This shows that buyers are out there on the sidelines, waiting to jump in once more inventory becomes available and the price is right,” he says.

Lower affordability and a lack of moderately priced homes on the market are the two main factors putting a strain on sales, Yun says. Still, affordability is much more favorable when compared to the past few decades. “When compared to the year 2000—when the housing market was considered very healthy and home sales figures were roughly equivalent—the affordability conditions were much lower compared to now,” Yun says. “So even though affordability has been falling recently, the demand for housing should remain steady.”

Yun also believes the housing market will soon reflect the overall health of the economy. “The general condition of the economy is excellent, but it simply has not lifted home sales this year,” Yun says. “Home prices are still rising, so people who are purchasing are still seeing wealth gains.”

Many markets are seeing an increase in inventories, which is opening up choices for those who are looking to buy. Markets such as Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.; Columbus, Ohio; Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.; San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.; and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif., all saw some of the largest increase in active listings in September compared to a year ago, according to data from realtor.com®.

Source: National Association of REALTORS®; REALTOR® Mag News 102518

Nationally: Why Were Fewer Contracts Signed in August?

Nationally: Why Were Fewer Contracts Signed in August?
National Association of REALTORS® | September 27, 2018

Pending home sales continued to fall last month, marking the eighth consecutive month for annual decreases, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Thursday. The drop in contracts may be a sign of a growing number of buyers who are being priced out of the market, economists warn.

August PHS InfographicNAR’s Pending Home Sales Index—a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings—fell 1.8 percent to a reading of 104.2 in August. Contract signings are now 2.3 percent lower than a year ago.

The largest declines last month were in the West, where home prices have risen the most. “[This] clearly indicates that affordability is hindering buyers and those affordability issues come from lack of inventory, particularly in moderate price points,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

The decline in sales contracts has also coincided with fewer homes on the market. But that may soon change—a record high of Americans now say it’s a good time to sell their home, according to NAR’s third-quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience survey.

“Just a couple of years ago about 55 percent of consumers indicated it was a good time to sell; that figure has climbed to 77 percent today,” Yun says. “With prices having risen so quickly, many consumers were deciding to wait to list their homes hoping to see additional price and equity gains. However, with indications that buyers are beginning to pull out, price gains are going to decelerate and potential sellers are considering that now is a good time to list and bring more properties to the market.”

Source: National Association of REALTORS®; REALTOR® Mag News 092718

August Brings Home Sales Increase

August Brings Home Sales Increase
Greater Nashville REALTORS®, Press Release September 7, 2018

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Sept. 7, 2018) – There were 3,961 closings reported for the month of August, according to figures provided by Greater Nashville REALTORS®. This represents a 2.0 percent increase from the 3,883 closings reported for August 2017.

Year-to-date closings total 27,205 a 0.2 percent decrease compared to the 27,248 closings reported through July 2017.

“The numbers in August show a healthy increase in closings compared to August 2017,” said Greater Nashville REALTORS® President Sher Powers. “We’re also seeing strong pending sales as we head into September, which bodes well for fall closings.”

There were 3,152 properties under contract at the end of the month, compared to the 3,939 properties under contract at this time last year. The average number of days on the market for a single-family home was 27 days.

The median residential price for a single-family home during August was $305,000 and for a condominium it was $224,900. This compares with last year’s median residential and condominium prices of $285,000 and $207,061.

Active inventory at the end of August was 12,150, which increased from 9,208 in 2017.

“As inventory shows moderate increases across Middle Tennessee, the market is calming and offering more home options for buyers, which has inspired new buyers to step into the market and more sellers to list their homes,” added Powers.

About Us: Greater Nashville REALTORS® is one of Middle Tennessee’s largest professional trade associations and serves as the primary voice for Nashville-area property owners. REALTOR® is a registered trademark that may be used only by real estate professionals who are members of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribe to its strict code of ethics.

The data collected for this release represents nine Middle Tennessee counties: Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Maury, Robertson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson and Wilson.

View the August 2018 Market Data Infographic

Source: Greater Nashville REALTORS®, Press Release 090718

Middle Tennessee Housing Inventory Continues to Rise

Middle Tennessee Housing Inventory Continues to Rise
Greater Nashville REALTORS®, Press Release | August 7, 2018

TheGulchNashvilleNASHVILLE, Tenn. (Aug. 7, 2018) – There were 3,812 closings reported for the month of July, according to figures provided by Greater Nashville REALTORS®. This represents a 1.5 percent decrease from the 3,872 closings reported for July 2017.

Year-to-date closings total 23,242 a 0.5 percent decrease compared to the 23,365 closings reported through July 2017.

“The numbers in July show a slight decrease in closings compared to 2017, but the market remains stable as we continue to see a steady inventory increase,” said Greater Nashville REALTORS® President Sher Powers. “We are pleased to see inventory continue to grow across Middle Tennessee, which is not the case in other markets across the country.”

There were 3,347 properties under contract at the end of the month, compared to the 3,575 properties under contract at this time last year. The average number of days on the market for a single-family home was 25 days.

The median residential price for a single-family home during July was $307,000 and for a condominium it was $222,750. This compares with last year’s median residential and condominium prices of $288,243 and $203,000.

Active inventory at the end of July was 11,671 which increased from 9,151 in 2017.

“The continued increase in inventory can lead to a more balanced and healthy market across Middle Tennessee, calming the steady pricing increases we’ve seen in the past few years, which in turn may inspire buyers on the fence to start their home buying search,” said Powers.

### About Us: Greater Nashville REALTORS® is one of Middle Tennessee’s largest professional trade associations and serves as the primary voice for Nashville-area property owners. REALTOR® is a registered trademark that may be used only by real estate professionals who are members of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribe to its strict code of ethics. ###

The data collected for this release represents nine Middle Tennessee counties: Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Maury, Robertson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson and Wilson.

View the July 2018 Market Data Infographic

Source: Greater Nashville REALTORS®, Press Release 080718

Upbeat Sellers Show Readiness to Make a Move

Upbeat Sellers Show Readiness to Make a Move
National Association of REALTORS® | June 21, 2018

Home prices are climbing across the country, and that has made homeowners more bullish when it comes to the prospects of selling. Seventy-five percent of more than 2,700 households recently surveyed say it’s a good time to sell a house; 68 percent say it’s a good time to buy, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ second quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey.

“Hopefully this strong seller optimism will lead to an increase in inventory later on in the year,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Fifty-five percent of consumers say they believe that home prices will continue to increase in their communities over the next six months, up from the previous quarter (53 percent), according to NAR’s report.

In the second quarter, however, optimism for buying stayed stagnant. Thirty-nine percent of consumers strongly agree now is a good time to buy, while 29 percent moderately agree. A decreasing number of renters are upbeat about buying, dropping from 55 percent in the first quarter to now 49 percent in the second quarter. Optimism for buying is highest among older buyers 65 or over, as well as those living in the South and Midwest regions, the report found.

“Inventory remains the driving force in real estate, affecting everything from rising prices to household formation,” Yun says. “Improving supply conditions is critical to improving buyer optimism and helping to remove some of the barriers holding back potential first-time buyers.”

Overall, consumers are more optimistic about the economy. Fifty-eight percent of households surveyed said they thought the economy was improving, with people in rural areas the most upbeat about economic conditions, according to the survey.

Their optimism over the economy has also helped more consumers believe that they would have an easier time to obtain a mortgage. “This is most likely a reflection of the current positive outlook on the direction of the economy,” Yun says. “Healthy job creation and faster wage growth mean that homeownership is viewed as a more attainable goal than it was a year ago.”

1816_home-q2-2018 (1)

Source: “Q2 Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) Survey,” National Association of REALTORS® (June 21, 2018); REALTOR® Magazine 062118

States Where Owners Are Likely to Move

States Where Owners Are Likely to Move
ATTOM Data Solutions   article by Daily Real Estate News | May 17, 2018

Nevada has the highest share of homeowners who are likely to move, according to a new report released by ATTOM Data Solutions. Homeowners in Delaware, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia rounded out the top five places where homeowners are showing the greatest likelihood of moving.

ATTOM Data Solutions, a real estate research firm, culled data from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions for its first quarter Pre-Mover Housing Index. The index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag during a quarter to total single-family homes and condos in a geographic area. An index reading above 100 indicates a home will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market.

By metro area, the top 10 highest pre-mover locales are in: Colorado Springs, Colo. (280 reading); Manchester-Nashua, N.H. (213); El Paso, Texas (213); Washington, D.C. (208); Orlando, Fla. (201); Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla. (200); Las Vegas (199); Charleston, S.C. (198); Nashville, Tenn. (185); and Jacksonville, Fla. (184).

“The pre-mover index provides insight into which markets are poised to see a high percentage of homeowners moving this spring and which markets are likely to see a high percentage of homeowners staying put,” says Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Markets with a high pre-mover index tend to be in areas where homes are still somewhat reasonably priced and have a growing job market, allowing for greater upward mobility. Markets with a low pre-mover index tend to be in areas with a struggling job market or with home prices that are out of reach for the average wage earner.”

The metros with the lowest pre-mover index were Cleveland (46 reading); Rochester, N.Y. (48); Boston (49); Pittsburgh (51); and Providence, R.I. (53).

Where Homeowners Are Moving in Q2 2018

 

Source: ATTOM Data Solutions; REALTOR® Magazine Online, Daily Real Estate News 051718

Fannie: Housing Confidence Hits Record High

Fannie: Housing Confidence Hits Record High
Fannie Mae   article by Daily Real Estate News | May 8, 2018

Fannie Mae LogoOptimism for selling a home has helped propel a housing confidence index by Fannie Mae to an all-time high last month. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose 3.4 points in April to a record 91.7. Last month’s survey posted increases in five of six components that set out to measure Americans’ perceptions of the housing market. Consumers were also upbeat about home prices, job security, and their own personal finances.

“The latest HPSI reading edged up to a new survey high, showing that consumer attitudes remain resilient going into the spring/summer buying season,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. “High home prices and good economic conditions helped push the share of Americans who think it’s a good time to sell to a fresh record high. However, the upward trend in the good-time-to-sell share seen since last spring has done little to release more for-sale inventory. The tightest supply in decades, combined with rising mortgage rates from historically low levels, will likely remain a hurdle for mobility and a persistent headwind for home sales.”

A separate survey released Monday by the polling firm Gallup showed that the majority of U.S. adults—64 percent—continue to believe home prices in their local area will increase over the next year, the highest percentage since before the housing market crisis and the Great Recession in the mid-2000s.

Home shoppers do appear to be getting frustrated. The only component of Fannie Mae’s index that saw a decrease last month was the number of consumers who said now is a good to buy, which dropped three percentage points compared to March.

Here’s a closer look at some of the findings from Fannie Mae’s April Home Purchase Sentiment Index, based on the responses of about 1,000 consumers:

  • 29%: The net share of Americans who say it’s a good time to buy a home, a 3 percentage point drop from last month.
  • 45%: The net share of those who say it’s a good time to sell, a 6 percentage point month-over-month increase and new survey high.
  • 49%: The net share of Americans who say home prices will go up, a 7 percentage point month-over-month increase.
  • 76%: The net share of consumers who say they are not concerned about losing their job, up 5 percentage points from March.
  • 18%: The net share who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, up 1 percentage point from last month.

Source: Fannie Mae and “Americans Haven’t Been This Optimistic About House Prices Since Just Before the Crash,” MarketWatch (May 7, 2018); Daily Real Estate News 050818