MARKET COMMENT Mortgage bond prices ended lower last week, which pushed mortgage interest rates slightly higher. The early portion of the week was relatively tame compared to recent trading conditions. Most of the weakness came Thursday following stronger than expected weekly employment figures. Weekly jobless claims came in at 390k, better than the expected 400k mark and generally not bond friendly. Continuing claims came in at 3,615k, which also beat estimates. The reaction was negative and sent rates slightly higher ahead of the extended holiday weekend. Positive stocks also pressured rates at times throughout the week. Mortgage interest rates rose by approximately 1/4 of a discount point for the week.
• Producer Price Index; Nov. 15; Consensus Estimate Up 0.4%, Core up 0.2%; Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
• Retail Sales; Nov. 15; Consensus Estimate Up 1.4%; Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
• Business Inventories; Nov. 15; Consensus Estimate Up 0.2%; Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates.
• Consumer Price Index; Nov. 16; Consensus Estimate Up 0.3%, Core up 0.1%; Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
• Industrial Production; Nov. 16; Consensus Estimate Up 0.2%; Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
• Capacity Utilization; Nov. 16; Consensus Estimate 77.2%; Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.
• Weekly Jobless Claims; Nov. 17; Consensus Estimate 387k; Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
• Housing Starts; Nov. 17; Consensus Estimate 610k; Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
• Philadelphia Fed Survey; Nov. 17; Consensus Estimate 6.8; Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
• Leading Economic Indicators; Nov. 18; Consensus Estimate Up 0.2%; Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.
BUSINESS INVENTORIES The report on business inventories basically gives a broader look at the durable goods, factory orders, and retail sales reports. Not only is this report an important part of the investment component of the GDP, but it also provides additional evidence about the economy in the upcoming months. Changes in business inventories slow as the economy approaches a peak, and rise as the economy approaches the trough of a recession. Therefore the change in business inventories is a leading indicator of GDP. The data for this report, which are published by the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau, comes from a monthly survey of inventories, orders, and manufacturers’ shipments, in addition to the merchant wholesalers and retail trade surveys.
In this environment every piece of data has the potential to cause some volatility.
Source: F&M Mortgage, Todd Kabel; MMIS, Rate Link; Blog distribution provided by Kenneth Bargers and Bargers Solutions, a proud member of Pilkerton Realtors, residential real estate services located in Nashville, Tennessee