KENNETH BARGERS | In The News

Realtor, Tennis Player, Titans & Vols Fan, Nashvillian… Live! Work! Play! in Middle Tennessee

Market Comment for Week of October 17, 2011…

leave a comment »

MARKET COMMENT  Mortgage bond prices fell last week, which pushed mortgage interest rates higher. The roller coaster ride of investor funds entering and exiting the stock and bond markets continues as economic uncertainty dominates trading. The losses continued as foreign demand for US debt instruments waned. Stocks were volatile but generally saw improvements on the week. Retail sales rose a stronger than expected 1.1%.

Mortgage bonds ended the week worse by about 1/4 of a discount point.

The inflation data on the producer and consumer sides will be extremely important this week. There is also a 30Y TIPS auctions Thursday. The recent auctions have shown weak foreign demand, which generally does not bode well for lower rates so caution will be key.

LOOKING AHEAD

• Industrial Production; Oct. 17; Consensus Estimate Up 0.3%; Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
• Capacity Utilization; Oct. 17; Consensus Estimate 77.2%; Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
• Producer Price Index; Oct. 18; Consensus Estimate Unchanged, Core up 0.1%; Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
• Consumer Price Index; Oct. 19; Consensus Estimate Up 0.3%, Core up 0.2%; Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates.
• Housing Starts; Oct. 19; Consensus Estimate 565k; Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
• Fed “Beige Book”; Oct. 19; Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
• Weekly Jobless Claims; Oct. 20; Consensus Estimate 400k; Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
• Philadelphia Fed Survey; Oct. 20; Consensus Estimate 10.4; Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
• Leading Economic Indicators; Oct. 20; Consensus Estimate Up 0.2%; Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.

SIGNIFICANT DATA  Recent economic reports have carried mixed weight in driving the financial markets in light of stock market swings. While stocks have set the tone for trading in mortgage-backed securities recently, an abundance of significant data this week may begin to weigh upon the market as well.

It is possible for mortgage interest rates to trend lower again. However, the potential for increases is also very real, as we have seen the past few weeks. Signs from the data this week that the economy is recovering could lead to stock strength.

Stocks are likely to continue to dictate trade. A weaker stock market may help to maintain current mortgage interest rate levels. However, signs of recovery in the stock market can pressure mortgage bond prices lower and rates higher.

Source: F&M Mortgage, Todd Kabel; Blog distribution provided by Kenneth Bargers and Bargers Solutions, a proud member of Pilkerton Realtors, residential real estate services located in Nashville, Tennessee

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Hiaco

Ad, Sales & Marketing.

Rachel Being Chatty

Now featuring 15% more sarcasm.

MovieBabble

The Casual Way to Discuss Movies

The Ninth Life

It's time to be inspired, become encouraged, and get uplifted!

MovieBabble

The Casual Way to Discuss Movies

The Shameful Sheep

shit storms, shame, and stories that make you cringe

Autoindigo Blog

Fresh news about automotive world. Cars overviews written by experts, pros and cons, features, performance, safety, interior and driving.

Little Fears

Tales of whimsy, humor and courgettes

www.virtual-reality-shop.co.uk/

VR, AR, 3D and Video Glasses Reviews

Woodstock Business Welcome

Welcome Wagon Canada

Blookup Blog

Turn and print all your digital contents, blogs and social networks into amazing real paper books on blookup.com

nalinidesignprofile

Graphic Designer

Sableyes

Sabbles woz 'ere

518-songofmypeople

A town everyone hates, yet no one leaves...

Attila Ovari

Loving Life and Inspiring Others

Augusta Littleton

Nonprofits and Charities

The Home Buyer Class Blog

What to know when buying a home

The Contractor's Cabinet

A Blog On Construction & More

Gamintraveler

Love, Travel Lifestyle and Destinations

kelzbelzphotography

My journey - The good, bad and the ugly

antryump

"A Blog worth reading "

john pavlovitz

Stuff That Needs To Be Said

Smart Discount Shop

Discover all the creative and ingenious ways to save money !

playwithlifeorg

4 out of 5 dentists recommend this WordPress.com site

ultimatemindsettoday

A great WordPress.com site

Vonj Productions

Bringing you love through spirit!

The Dystopian Nation of City-State

A cruel, futuristic vision created by science fiction authors James Courtney and Kaisy Wilkerson-Mills. ©2013-2016. All Rights Reserved. All writings available through Amazon.

Bubba Pigg

South' s Leading Anti- Intellectual: Wealthy in Common Sense and the Wisdom of Selfishness

@TheTexasBroker Blog

Real Estate Sales Houston Texas

The Travelling Pantry

Adventurous, Honest and Wholesome

Top 10 of Anything and Everything!!!

Animals, Gift Ideas, Travel, Books, Recycling Ideas and Many, Many More

meganelizabethmorales

MANNERS MAKETH MAN, LOST BOYS FAN & PERPETAUL CREATIVITY.

William the butler

Serving drinks since 1985

lauraagudelo272

This WordPress.com site is the bee's knees

Plutonium™ Paint

Ultra Supreme Professional Grade Aerosol Paint

Covered in Beer

by Thomas Cochran, Known Moron

Natalie Breuer

Natalie. Writer. Photographer. Etc.

Post it Notes from my Idiot Boss

delivered directly to my computer monitor on an all too regular basis...

Late Blooming Entrepreneurs

Making it big in business after age 40