Kenneth Bargers Blog

Market Comment for Week of February 15th

MARKET COMMENT  Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates slightly higher. The early part of the week saw a reversal of the recent flight to quality buying of US investments as talks hinted of a Greek bailout by Germany. German Chancellor Merkel dashed those hopes late in the week causing turmoil in the European Union. As a result global investor funds returned to the US bond market. Rates improved Friday morning, which helped recover some of the earlier losses. Unfortunately rates still rose overall for the week by about 1/8 of a discount point. 

The consumer price index Friday will be the most important release this week. The other inflation data and the shortened trading week may also factor into mortgage interest rate changes. The typical back and forth movements of stocks and bonds will also likely take place as uncertainty continues to permeate the financial markets. 

LOOKING AHEAD

GLOBALIZATION  Economic globalization is the increasing interdependence of national economies through trade, finances, and technology. While economists debate the pros and cons of globalization, the fact remains that globalization is not new and continues to expand. As a driving force in the global economy, the US often benefits when foreign economies struggle. A prime example is the concern of a Greek economic collapse. Unlike a corporation, a country cannot file for bankruptcy when they can’t make debt payments. One remedy in situations like this has been restructuring the debt, which is mired in uncertainty for investors. The bigger global problem is the fear that a default by one member of the European Union could ripple throughout all the other eurozone countries. In times like this, investors often move funds to safe havens in what is called a “flight to quality.” This is exactly what we saw Friday morning as US debt instruments saw an influx of foreign investment. Bond prices rose which caused mortgage interest rates to fall that morning. From a short-term perspective that is great for homebuyers and those refinancing. The long-term effects are less certain. A reversal could easily take place if the EU can prevent a default. This is a prime reason to take advantage of rate dips when they occur. 

Source:  Todd Kabel, US Bank, Nashville, Tennessee

February 15, 2010 - Posted by kbargers | economy, real estate | bargers solutions, Brentwood, chancellor merkel, consumer price index, economic globalization, economic indicator, european union, flight of quality, kenneth bargers, market comment, market report, middle tennessee, mortgage bond prices, mortgage interest rates, Nashville, producer price index, prudential woodmont realty, realtor, tennessee, todd kabel, us bank, us bond market, us debt