Kenneth Bargers: in the news…

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Market Comment for Week of February 8th

MARKET COMMENT  Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates slightly lower. Reignited fear of a global economic meltdown sent money into the mortgage bond market in flight to quality buying. The news reports were permeated with worries about European debt payment defaults. Greece and a few other countries were noted as specific concerns. The employment report Friday morning was mixed with unemployment not as bad as expected but a larger than expected drop in payrolls. For the week interest rates fell by about 1/4 of a discount point. 

The record debt issuance continues with billions of dollars worth of notes and bonds set for auction this week. Strong foreign demand will likely help the entire bond market. With the recent “revisions” to employment data the weekly jobless claims data will carry a bit more weight than usual. Retail sales figures will be the headline figure this week. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator		 Release
Date and Time		 Consensus
Estimate		 Analysis
3-year Note Auction Tuesday,
Feb. 9,
1:00 pm, et		 None Important. $40 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data Wednesday,
Feb. 10,
8:30 am, et		 $35 billion deficit Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
10-year Note Auction Wednesday,
Feb. 10,
1:00 pm, et		 None Important. $25 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday,
Feb. 11,
8:30 am, et		 475k Important. An indication of the employment situation. Higher claims could lead to lower rates.
Retail Sales Thursday,
Feb. 11,
8:30 am, et		 Up 0.4% Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Business Inventories Thursday,
Feb. 11,
10:00 am, et		 Up 0.4% Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates.
30-year Bond Auction Thursday,
Feb. 11,
1:00 pm, et		 None Important. $16 billion of bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday,
Feb. 12,
10:00 am, et		 74.6 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

EMPLOYMENT REVISION  The employment report is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, data releases each month. Last week’s employment report came with more twists than usual. Unemployment came in at 9.7%, a sharp drop from the expected 10% mark. Payrolls fell 20,000, weaker than the expected 15,000 increase. This divergence happens from time to time with the data derived from two completely different surveys. One piece of the report that caused major concern was the annual benchmark update, which showed the economy lost 930,000 more jobs than previously estimated in the 12 months ended March 2009. The revised number was very large and basically indicates 2009’s employment situation was worse than most thought. 

A few things that call into question the accuracy of the data influenced this report. Some analysts argued the hiring of temporary census workers threw the figures off. The data was received with a lot of uncertainty and resulted in some wild market swings immediately after the release. The initial reaction sent bond prices lower and interest rates higher. However, the bond market rebounded a bit after digesting the data for an hour or so. This was a prime example of the volatility that often occurs with major data releases.

 Source:  Todd Kabel, US Bank, Nashville, Tennessee

February 8, 2010 Posted by kbargers | economy, real estate | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | No Comments Yet

LOL Friday…What’s for dinner?

Every 10 years a group of 40 years old buddies get together and discuss where they should go for dinner.  This time it is agreed that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen restaurant because the waitress’s there have low cut blouses and nice breasts.

10 years later, at 50 years of age, the group meets again and once again they discuss where they should meet. Finally it is agreed that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen because the food there is very good and the wine selection is good also.

10 years later at 60 years of age, the group meets again and once again they discuss where they should meet. Finally it is agreed that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen because they can eat there in peace and quiet and the restaurant is smoke free.

10 years later, at 70 years of age, the group meets again and once again they discuss where they should meet. Finally it is agreed that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen because the restaurant is wheel chair accessible and they even have an elevator.

10 years later, at 80 years of age, the group meets again and once again they discuss where they should meet. Finally it is agreed that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen because they have never been there before.

February 5, 2010 Posted by kbargers | humor | , , , , , , , , , , , | No Comments Yet

Still Time to Take Advantage of Homebuyer Tax Credit

There’s still time to take advantage of homebuyer government tax credits through The Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act! 

The Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 extends the deadline for qualifying home purchases from Nov. 30, 2009, to April 30, 2010. Additionally, if a buyer enters into a binding contract by April 30, 2010, the buyer has until June 30, 2010, to settle on the purchase.

 The maximum tax credit amount remains at $8,000 for a first-time homebuyer – that is, a buyer who has not owned a primary residence during the three years up to the date of purchase.

But the new law also provides a “long-time resident” tax credit of up to $6,500 to others who do not qualify as “first-time homebuyers.” To qualify this way, a buyer must have owned and used the same home as a principal or primary residence for at least five consecutive years of the eight-year period ending on the date of purchase of a new home as a primary residence.

For all qualifying purchases in 2010, taxpayers have the option of claiming the tax credit on either their 2009 or 2010 tax returns.

Income Limits Rise

The new law raises the income limits for people who purchase homes after Nov. 6, 2009. The full tax credit will be available to taxpayers with modified adjusted gross incomes (MAGI) up to $125,000 individual, or $225,000 for joint filers. Those with MAGI between $125,000 and $145,000 individual, or $225,000 and $245,000 for joint filers, are eligible for a reduced tax credit. Those with higher incomes do not qualify.

New Requirements

Several new restrictions on purchases that occur after Nov. 6, 2009 go into effect with the new law:

  • Dependents are not eligible to claim the tax credit.
  • No tax credit is available if the purchase price of a home is more than $800,000.
  • A purchaser must be at least 18 years of age on the date of purchase.

Source:  Courtesy of Todd Kabel, US Bank and Kenneth Bargers, Prudential Woodmont Realty

February 3, 2010 Posted by kbargers | real estate | , , , , , , , , , , , , | No Comments Yet

10 Home Features Buyers Want

Home designers and builders speaking at the recent International Builders Show in Las Vegas say that buyers are seeking cost-effective features and rejecting things that don’t have lasting value.

“It’s all about family togetherness – casual living, entertaining and flexible spaces,” says Carol Lavender, president of the Lavender Design Group in San Antonio.

Paul Cardis, CEO of Avid Ratings, which conducts an annual survey of buyer preferences, identified these must-haves in new homes:

  1. Large kitchens with islands
  2. Energy efficiency, including energy-efficient appliances, super insulation, and high-efficiency windows.
  3. Home offices
  4. Main-floor master suite
  5. Outdoor living space
  6. Ceiling fans
  7. Soaking tub in the master suite and/or an oversize shower with a seating area
  8. Stone and brick exteriors rather than stucco or vinyl
  9. Community walking paths and playgrounds
  10. Two-car garages, but three-car garages are even more desirable

Source: MarketWatch, Steve Kerch (01/30/2010)

February 2, 2010 Posted by kbargers | real estate | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

February’s In The News Newsletter Released

This month’s In the News newsletter is now available.  If you wish to be added to the monthly distribution, please send me your name and email address to kb@bargers-solutions.com.  I hope you enjoy this month’s contribution – http://www.bargers-solutions.com/NewsletterFebruary10.html

February 1, 2010 Posted by kbargers | marketing, real estate | , , , , , , , , , , | No Comments Yet

Market Comment for Week of February 1st

MARKET COMMENT  Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates slightly higher. Most of the data early in the week was bond-friendly. Unfortunately the Fed’s reminder that their purchases of mortgage bonds would cease after the first quarter sent bond prices tumbling Wednesday afternoon. This was followed by stronger than expected gross domestic product, employment cost index, and PCE price data Friday morning. Bonds were helped Friday afternoon as stocks remained jittery. Interest rates rose by about 1/8 of a discount point for the week.

The employment report Friday will be the most important event this week. Income, outlays, ISM Index, productivity, and factory orders data may also move the market. The ADP payrolls data will be carefully watched even though the release does not always reflect the results of the employment report. It still provides another view of the employment situation.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator		 Release
Date and Time		 Consensus
Estimate		 Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays Monday,
Feb. 1,
8:30 am, et		 Income up 0.3%,
Outlays up 0.2%		 Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction Spending Monday,
Feb. 1,
10:00 am, et		 Down 0.3% Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index Monday,
Feb. 1,
10:00 am, et		 56.7 Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A large decline may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment Wednesday,
Feb. 3,
8:30 am, et		 -90k Important. A measure of employment. A large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Preliminary Q4 Productivity Thursday,
Feb. 4,
8:30 am, et		 Up 5.9% Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders Thursday,
Feb. 4,
10:00 am, et		 Up 1.5% Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

ISM  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), releases the “Report on Business” on the first working day of each month. Part of this report is the “diffusion index,” which tracks the economy’s ups and downs fairly well.

In conducting this survey, the ISM questions purchasing executives from over 250 industrial companies compiling data on production, orders, commodity prices, inventories, vendor performance, and employment. Each of the respondents is asked to rank the categories as “up” or “down.” Various weights are applied to the individual components to form the composite index.

A composite index reading of 50 can be thought of as a “swing point.” A reading above 50 implies an increase in economic activity, while a reading below 50 indicates a decline. As a general rule of thumb, when the index approaches 60, investors begin to worry about an overheated economy. A slide below 40 suggests that recession is at hand.

The ISM report is difficult for economists to forecast because there is little data upon which to base an educated guess. The report has a large “surprise factor” and can often prompt a significant market reaction. Be cautious.

Source: Courtesy of Todd Kabel, US Bank, Nashville, Tennessee

February 1, 2010 Posted by kbargers | economy, real estate | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | No Comments Yet

It’s Snowing in Nashville, Tennessee…



January 29, 2010 Posted by kbargers | photography, tennessee | , , , , | No Comments Yet

LOL Friday: Married Couple – what I meant to say was….

January 29, 2010 Posted by kbargers | humor | , , , , | No Comments Yet

The 10 Most Undervalued Housing Markets

Nationwide, only 87 markets are in the overvalued category, according to a newly released 2010 report compiled by IHS Global Insight and PNC Financial Services.

That means 242 of the 299 largest U.S. housing markets are selling for prices that even bankers think are less than fair market value. The judgment is based on a comparison of median home prices, local interest rates, population densities and income, plus historic premiums or discounts.

Here are the 10 most undervalued areas, according to the study: 

  1. Las Vegas, -41.4 percent
  2. Vero Beach, Fla., -39.8 percent
  3. Merced, Calif., -37.7 percent
  4. Cape Coral, Fla., -36.8 percent
  5. Houma, La., -34.6 percent
  6. Port St. Lucie, Fla., -33.3 percent
  7. Warren, Mich., -32.3 percent
  8. Vallejo, Calif., -31.9 percent
  9. Modesto, Calif. -31.8 percent
  10. Stockton, Calif., -31.8 percent

Source: CNNMoney, Les Christie (01/27/2010)

January 28, 2010 Posted by kbargers | economy, real estate | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | No Comments Yet

Open House This Sunday in Echo Subdivision of Franklin, Tennessee

Please view listing information sheet for details!

January 27, 2010 Posted by kbargers | open house, real estate | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | No Comments Yet

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